Tuesday, 20 November 2012

Risk Simulation and Queuing

If you want to learn all about children's fantasy literature, you'd jump at the chance to attend a private class with J.K. Rowling. 

In the world of operations research, Cliff Ragsdale stands at the top with his optimization and simulation textbook, "Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis," #1 in the world.  Cliff is Bank of America Professor of Business Information Technology at Virginia Tech, you can meet him in his online course "Risk Simulation and Queuing" at Statistics.com. Please visit for more details at http://www.statistics.com/queueing.

This course begins with the specification of risk analysis simulations and interpretation of their output. It goes on to cover the science and structure of optimal decision-making: payoff matrices, types of expected value, decision trees.  It also covers queuing theory, and closes with a discussion of multi-stage decisions.

The software used is Risk Solver Platform, from Frontline Systems.  If you don't already have a licensed copy of Risk Solver Platform, you will be provided with a license for the course so you can use all the features and capabilities.

Who Should Take This Course?
Business analysts with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting quantitative decision models.  Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.

Course Program:

Course outline: The course is structured as follows
SESSION 1: Risk Analysis
  • Simulation
  • Interpreting output
  • Implementing & optimizing the model

SESSION 2: Advanced Simulation
  • Poisson distribution, arrival rate
  • Service rate
  • Operating characteristics

SESSION 3: Queuing
  • Mastering complexity
  • Payoff matrix
  • Decision rules
  • Expected monetary value
  • Expected regret
  • Expected value of information
  • Decision trees

SESSION 4: Multistage Decision Problems
  • Risk profile
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Tornado charts
  • Using sample information
  • Conditional probabilities
  • Utility functions

Cliff T. Ragsdale is Professor of Business Information Technology. His primary research interests involve applications of quantitative modeling techniques to managerial decision making problems using microcomputers. Dr. Ragsdale has served as a consultant for a variety of organizations including General Mills, The World Bank, Frontline Systems, and Dominion Energy. His research has been published in Decision Sciences, Naval Research Logistics, Operations Research Letters, Computers and Operations Research, OMEGA, Personal Financial Planning, Financial Services Review, Decision Support Systems, and a number of other scholarly journals. He is a Fellow of Decision Sciences Institute and a member of INFORMS. He has also served as the faculty advisor for the Virginia Tech student chapter of APICS and on the Board of Directors for the Southwest Chapter of APICS.

This course takes place over the internet at the Institute for 4 weeks. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing - there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board so that they will be able to ask questions and exchange comments with instructor, Dr. Cliff Ragsdale. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor.

The course typically requires 15 hours per week. At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials, work through exercises, and submit answers. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments, and at the end of the week, you will receive individual feedback on your homework answers.

For Indian participants statistics.com accepts registration for its courses at special prices in Indian Rupees through its partner, the Center for eLearning and Training (C-eLT), Pune.

For India Registration and pricing, please visit us at www.india.statistics.com.

For More details contact at
Call: 020 66009116


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