To his short list of eternal ills (death and
taxes), Benjamin Franklin could have added "risk." While bad
for the economy, risk and uncertainty are good for statisticians - much of what
we do would be unnecessary in their absence.
"Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis" (Groenendaal and Nolder) covers how to frame a risk analysis problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate probability distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis results. The course will also cover common mistakes made when doing quantitative risk analysis and how to avoid them. For more details please visit at http://www.statistics.com/course-catalog/risk/
Huybert Groenendaal is Managing Partner at EpiX Analytics, helps clients in industry and government with financial investment evaluations, project risk analysis, forecasting, operations, transportation logistics, epidemiology and more. He also organizes and teaches risk analysis courses and workshops worldwide and in the executive MBA program of the University of Texas at Dallas.
Greg Nolder is an experienced risk analysis consultant, working with clients in computer hardware, pharmaceuticals, banking, finance, construction, mining, oil & gas, chemicals, consumer packaged goods, transportation and engineering.
Aim of Course:
This
course will cover the most important principles, techniques and tools in
Quantitative Risk Analysis. The focus of the course is on how to conduct
accurate and effective risk analyses, including framing a risk analysis
problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate probability
distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis
results. In addition, the course will cover an introduction to probability and
statistics theory and various stochastic processes, which is critically
important to a solid understanding of quantitative risk analysis.
The
course will also familiarize participants with risk analysis modeling
environments (in this case ModelRisk with Excel, but the lessons and techniques
apply equally well to other modeling environments). The course will also cover
common mistakes made when doing quantitative risk analysis and how to avoid
them.
Who Should Take This Course:
Anyone in business, government and
science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis such as professionals
needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas indcluding, but not
limited to, finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering,
six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.
Course
Program:
Course outline: The
course is structured as follows
SESSION
1: Introduction
to Risk Analysis
- Core ideas of risk analysis
- Going from data to knowledge to a decision-making tool
- Introduction to statistical descriptors
- Mean, mode, standard deviation,
skewness, kurtosis, percentiles
- Probability concepts
SESSION
2: Probability
Theory
- Graphical representations of risk events: Venn diagrams,
fault trees and event trees
- Introduction to risk modeling
- Monte Carlo simulation,
ModelRisk and Excel
- Brief tutorial on ModelRisk
- Calculation vs. simulation - the
pros and cons of Monte Carlo
SESSION
3: Building
Risk Analysis Models
- Most commonly used probability distributions
- Good practices in risk modeling
- Common mistakes and how to prevent them
SESSION
4: Presenting
Results
- Typical risk analysis results, their presentation and
interpretation
- Example quantitative risk analyses, including:
- Project costs risk analysis
- Engineering
- Marketing
- Operations
- Financial risk analysis
- Health and Epidemiology
You will be able to ask
questions and exchange comments with the instructors via a private discussion
board throughout the course. The courses take place online at
statistics.com in a series of 4 weekly lessons and assignments, and require
about 15 hours/week. Participate at your own convenience; there are no
set times when you must be online. You have the flexibility to work a bit every
day, if that is your preference, or concentrate your work in just a couple of
days.
For Indian participants
statistics.com accepts registration for its courses at special prices in Indian
Rupees through its partner, the Center for eLearning and Training (C-eLT), Pune
(www.c-elt.com).
If you have any query
please feel free to call me or write to me.
For More details contact
at
Email: info@c-elt.com
Call: 020 66009116
Websites:
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