Thursday 5 April 2012

Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis


To his short list of eternal ills (death and taxes), Benjamin Franklin could have added "risk."  While bad for the economy, risk and uncertainty are good for statisticians - much of what we do would be unnecessary in their absence. 

"Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis" (Groenendaal and Nolder) covers how to frame a risk analysis problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate probability distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis results.  The course will also cover common mistakes made when doing quantitative risk analysis and how to avoid them. For more details please visit at
http://www.statistics.com/course-catalog/risk/

Huybert Groenendaal is Managing Partner at EpiX Analytics, helps clients in industry and government with financial investment evaluations, project risk analysis, forecasting, operations, transportation logistics, epidemiology and more.  He also organizes and teaches risk analysis courses and workshops worldwide and in the executive MBA program of the University of Texas at Dallas.

Greg Nolder is an experienced risk analysis consultant, working with clients in computer hardware, pharmaceuticals, banking, finance, construction, mining, oil & gas, chemicals, consumer packaged goods, transportation and engineering.

Aim of Course:
This course will cover the most important principles, techniques and tools in Quantitative Risk Analysis. The focus of the course is on how to conduct accurate and effective risk analyses, including framing a risk analysis problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate probability distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis results. In addition, the course will cover an introduction to probability and statistics theory and various stochastic processes, which is critically important to a solid understanding of quantitative risk analysis.

The course will also familiarize participants with risk analysis modeling environments (in this case ModelRisk with Excel, but the lessons and techniques apply equally well to other modeling environments). The course will also cover common mistakes made when doing quantitative risk analysis and how to avoid them.

Who Should Take This Course:
Anyone in business, government and science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis such as professionals needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas indcluding, but not limited to, finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering, six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.

Course Program:

Course outline: The course is structured as follows

SESSION 1: Introduction to Risk Analysis

  • Core ideas of risk analysis
  • Going from data to knowledge to a decision-making tool
  • Introduction to statistical descriptors
    • Mean, mode, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, percentiles
  • Probability concepts

 

SESSION 2: Probability Theory

  • Graphical representations of risk events: Venn diagrams, fault trees and event trees
  • Introduction to risk modeling
    • Monte Carlo simulation, ModelRisk and Excel
    • Brief tutorial on ModelRisk
    • Calculation vs. simulation - the pros and cons of Monte Carlo

 

SESSION 3: Building Risk Analysis Models

  • Most commonly used probability distributions
  • Good practices in risk modeling
  • Common mistakes and how to prevent them

 

SESSION 4: Presenting Results

  • Typical risk analysis results, their presentation and interpretation
  • Example quantitative risk analyses, including:
  • Project costs risk analysis
    • Engineering
    • Marketing
    • Operations
    • Financial risk analysis
    • Health and Epidemiology

You will be able to ask questions and exchange comments with the instructors via a private discussion board throughout the course.   The courses take place online at statistics.com in a series of 4 weekly lessons and assignments, and require about 15 hours/week.  Participate at your own convenience; there are no set times when you must be online. You have the flexibility to work a bit every day, if that is your preference, or concentrate your work in just a couple of days.

For Indian participants statistics.com accepts registration for its courses at special prices in Indian Rupees through its partner, the Center for eLearning and Training (C-eLT), Pune (www.c-elt.com).

For India Registration and pricing, please visit us at www.india.statistics.com.

If you have any query please feel free to call me or write to me. 

For More details contact at
Call: 020 66009116

Websites:

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