Monday, 1 April 2013

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Risk is the handmaiden of economic activity.  Protection from risk was first offered as a separate product in Genoa in 1347, and is now a large industry in its own right. Attaching a value to risk is the province of risk analysis and risk modeling, the subject of Dr. Huybert Groenendaal's and Mr. Greg Nolder's online course "Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis," at For more details please visit at

In this course you learn how to conduct accurate and effective risk analyses, including framing a risk analysis problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate probability distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis results. In addition, the course will cover an introduction to probability and statistics theory and various stochastic processes, which are critically important to a solid understanding of quantitative risk analysis.

The course will also familiarize participants with risk analysis modeling environments (in this case @RISK, Crystal Ball and/or ModelRisk with Excel), but the lessons and techniques apply equally well to other modeling environments). The course will also cover common mistakes made when doing quantitative risk analysis and how to avoid them.

Who Should Take This Course:
Anyone in business, government and science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis such as professionals needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas indcluding, but not limited to, finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering, six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.

Course Program:

Course outline: The course is structured as follows
SESSION 1: Introduction to Risk Analysis
  • Core ideas of risk analysis
  • Going from data to knowledge to a decision-making tool
  • Introduction to statistical descriptors
    • Mean, mode, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, percentiles
  • Probability concepts

SESSION 2: Probability Theory
  • Graphical representations of risk events: Venn diagrams, fault trees and event trees
  • Introduction to risk modeling
    • Monte Carlo simulation, ModelRisk, @RISK, Crystal Ball and Excel
    • Brief tutorial on ModelRisk, @RISK, and Crystal Ball
    • Calculation vs. simulation - the pros and cons of Monte Carlo

SESSION 3: Building Risk Analysis Models
  • Most commonly used probability distributions
  • Good practices in risk modeling
  • Common mistakes and how to prevent them

SESSION 4: Presenting Results
  • Typical risk analysis results, their presentation and interpretation
  • Example quantitative risk analyses, including:
  • Project costs risk analysis
    • Engineering
    • Marketing
    • Operations
    • Financial risk analysis
    • Health and Epidemiology

Dr. Huybert Groenendaal, Managing Partner at EpiX Analytics, helps clients in industry and government with financial investment evaluations, project risk analysis, forecasting, operations, transportation logistics, epidemiology and more.  He also organizes and teaches "Quantitative Risk Analysis", "Project Risk Analysis", and "Corporate Risk Analysis" courses and workshops worldwide and has taught on risk analysis in the executive MBA program of the University of Texas at Dallas.

Mr. Greg Nolder, is an experienced risk analysis consultant having worked with numerous clients from diverse industries such as computer hardware, pharmaceuticals, banking, finance, construction, mining, oil & gas, chemicals, consumer packaged goods, transportation and engineering.  He has particular interest in systems involving stochastic optimization, general QRA and applying analytics to amateur and professional sports. Participants can ask questions and exchange comments with Dr. Groenendaal and Mr. Nolder via a private discussion board throughout the period.

Participants can ask questions and exchange comments with Dr. Phadke via a private discussion board throughout the period. The course takes place online at in a series of 4 weekly lessons and assignments, and requires about 15 hours/week. Participate at your own convenience; there are no set times when you are required to be online.

For Indian participants accepts registration for its courses at special prices in Indian Rupees through its partner, the Center for eLearning and Training (C-eLT), Pune.

For India Registration and pricing, please visit us at

Call: 020 66009116


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